Fantasy Forecaster: Week 13
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
On tap: It's a remarkably light week on the baseball schedule, with only 89 games and eight teams set to play five games apiece. That puts this week on par with Weeks 2 (88 games played) and 3 (90 played), though keep in mind that rainouts were somewhat responsible for shortening those weeks; they originally had 93 and 95 games scheduled. Fantasy's Week 13, therefore, is the lightest scheduled week to date, and keep in mind it'd have been even shorter if not for two rescheduled contests: New York Mets at Colorado Rockies on Thursday, and Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox on Friday, which creates a doubleheader.
The primary reason for the lighter week is a larger volume of interleague play, 10 series to be exact, seven of them two-game series played on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's the teams that don't have interleague games that will be busiest: The Indians play eight times, thanks to that doubleheader; and the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies each play seven times.
Such a disparity in scheduled games makes it another "volume"-based strategic week, as seven (or even eight) games compared to five represents a handy advantage. This is a week -- if you play in a weekly-transactions league -- to use Mark Reynolds over Josh Donaldson. It's also a week in which you should be especially happy to own any of the eight two-start pitchers ranked in my top 20; there are only 28 two-start pitchers total in Week 13.
Barring postponements between now and then, we'll reach the mathematical midpoint of the 2013 fantasy baseball/regular-season baseball season on the final day of Week 13. That arrives once 12 of the 15 games scheduled on Sunday are in the books, meaning that by the time our "Sunday Night Baseball" game (New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) begins, we'll be beyond the midway point. Consider this week, therefore, another good time to reassess your team's standing.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 12 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
It's a light Monday, with only four games scheduled, none of them with an earlier scheduled time than 7:05 p.m. ET (Indians at Orioles). That gives us a fourth consecutive week with a late start time in weekly formats.
There are also earlier-than-usual games on Wednesday -- frequently a "getaway day" -- and Friday, which is typically a day with only night games. Wednesday's first game kicks off at 12:10 p.m. ET (Blue Jays at Rays), while Friday's action starts at 5:10 p.m. ET (Indians at White Sox doubleheader, Game 1). Thursday's first game begins at the traditional 1 p.m. ET "day game" start time (Rangers at Yankees). Take note, if you play in a league with daily transactions.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• New York Mets at Chicago White Sox (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
• Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
• Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Oddly, just one of this week's 10 interleague series will be played in a National League park, meaning in only two of 23 interleague contests will an American League team be impacted by the loss of the designated hitter: That's the Twins, who have used six different designated hitters to date and not one for as many as 20 games (they've played 69). Losing the DH means that either Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit needs to sit in either game, or both could play with Doumit in right field, meaning Oswaldo Arcia would sit (if he doesn't shift to center field with Clete Thomas on the bench). Mauer's owners should start him anyway, but in a five-game week, the prospect of one lost game apiece for Arcia or Doumit is enough to lower their value in an AL-only or deep-mixed league.
Matt Adams, who is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues, gets a massive boost in fantasy appeal this week, as a potential Cardinals designated hitter for the four of the team's five interleague games in AL parks that are against right-handed starters. He is, after all, a .311/.346/.554 hitter against righties this season.
The Reds, meanwhile, are the other NL team to play five games in AL parks, but they lack a clear daily option to DH. Jack Hannahan and Devin Mesoraco got their previous two starts at DH during interleague games at AL venues, but the Reds might also use the spot to grant Donald Lutz or Xavier Paul additional at-bats. NL-only owners can keep in mind that there are potentially 20 extra plate appearances to go around for Reds hitters this week; that's five games times four per game.
Josh Satin is a deep NL-only sleeper, as the Mets might shift Lucas Duda to the DH role to free up first base for Satin. A .305/.420/.491 hitter for Triple-A Las Vegas to begin the season, Satin is a .375 hitter through his first six games for the big club, though he has made only three starts to date.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
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By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
On tap: It's a remarkably light week on the baseball schedule, with only 89 games and eight teams set to play five games apiece. That puts this week on par with Weeks 2 (88 games played) and 3 (90 played), though keep in mind that rainouts were somewhat responsible for shortening those weeks; they originally had 93 and 95 games scheduled. Fantasy's Week 13, therefore, is the lightest scheduled week to date, and keep in mind it'd have been even shorter if not for two rescheduled contests: New York Mets at Colorado Rockies on Thursday, and Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox on Friday, which creates a doubleheader.
The primary reason for the lighter week is a larger volume of interleague play, 10 series to be exact, seven of them two-game series played on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's the teams that don't have interleague games that will be busiest: The Indians play eight times, thanks to that doubleheader; and the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies each play seven times.
Such a disparity in scheduled games makes it another "volume"-based strategic week, as seven (or even eight) games compared to five represents a handy advantage. This is a week -- if you play in a weekly-transactions league -- to use Mark Reynolds over Josh Donaldson. It's also a week in which you should be especially happy to own any of the eight two-start pitchers ranked in my top 20; there are only 28 two-start pitchers total in Week 13.
Barring postponements between now and then, we'll reach the mathematical midpoint of the 2013 fantasy baseball/regular-season baseball season on the final day of Week 13. That arrives once 12 of the 15 games scheduled on Sunday are in the books, meaning that by the time our "Sunday Night Baseball" game (New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) begins, we'll be beyond the midway point. Consider this week, therefore, another good time to reassess your team's standing.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 12 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
It's a light Monday, with only four games scheduled, none of them with an earlier scheduled time than 7:05 p.m. ET (Indians at Orioles). That gives us a fourth consecutive week with a late start time in weekly formats.
There are also earlier-than-usual games on Wednesday -- frequently a "getaway day" -- and Friday, which is typically a day with only night games. Wednesday's first game kicks off at 12:10 p.m. ET (Blue Jays at Rays), while Friday's action starts at 5:10 p.m. ET (Indians at White Sox doubleheader, Game 1). Thursday's first game begins at the traditional 1 p.m. ET "day game" start time (Rangers at Yankees). Take note, if you play in a league with daily transactions.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• New York Mets at Chicago White Sox (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
• Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
• Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Oddly, just one of this week's 10 interleague series will be played in a National League park, meaning in only two of 23 interleague contests will an American League team be impacted by the loss of the designated hitter: That's the Twins, who have used six different designated hitters to date and not one for as many as 20 games (they've played 69). Losing the DH means that either Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit needs to sit in either game, or both could play with Doumit in right field, meaning Oswaldo Arcia would sit (if he doesn't shift to center field with Clete Thomas on the bench). Mauer's owners should start him anyway, but in a five-game week, the prospect of one lost game apiece for Arcia or Doumit is enough to lower their value in an AL-only or deep-mixed league.
Matt Adams, who is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues, gets a massive boost in fantasy appeal this week, as a potential Cardinals designated hitter for the four of the team's five interleague games in AL parks that are against right-handed starters. He is, after all, a .311/.346/.554 hitter against righties this season.
The Reds, meanwhile, are the other NL team to play five games in AL parks, but they lack a clear daily option to DH. Jack Hannahan and Devin Mesoraco got their previous two starts at DH during interleague games at AL venues, but the Reds might also use the spot to grant Donald Lutz or Xavier Paul additional at-bats. NL-only owners can keep in mind that there are potentially 20 extra plate appearances to go around for Reds hitters this week; that's five games times four per game.
Josh Satin is a deep NL-only sleeper, as the Mets might shift Lucas Duda to the DH role to free up first base for Satin. A .305/.420/.491 hitter for Triple-A Las Vegas to begin the season, Satin is a .375 hitter through his first six games for the big club, though he has made only three starts to date.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
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<center>Team</center> | <center>Mon 6/24</center> | <center>Tue 6/25</center> | <center>Wed 6/26</center> | <center>Thu 6/27</center> | <center>Fri 6/28</center> | <center>Sat 6/29</center> | <center>Sun 6/30</center> |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Britton (LHP) P: 4 | CLE Tillman (RHP) P: 7 | CLE Hammel (RHP) P: 3 | CLE Gonzalez (RHP) P: 7 | NYY Garcia (RHP) P: 1 | NYY Britton (LHP) P: 3 | NYY Tillman (RHP) P: 7 |
| COL Dempster (RHP) P: 4 | COL Lackey (RHP) P: 5 | TOR Lester (LHP) P: 2 | TOR Webster (RHP) P: 1 | TOR Doubront (LHP) P: 6 | TOR Dempster (RHP) P: 4 | |
| NYM Sale (LHP) P: 10 | NYM Danks (LHP) P: 4 | CLE-2 Santiago (LHP) P: 8 Quintana (LHP) P: 4 | CLE Axelrod (RHP) P: 3 | CLE Sale (LHP) P: 9 | ||
| @BAL Jimenez (RHP) P: 3 | @BAL Masterson (RHP) P: 5 | @BAL Kazmir (LHP) P: 1 | @BAL Kluber (RHP) P: 4 | @CWS-2 Carrasco (RHP) P: 4 TBD P: 1 | @CWS Jimenez (RHP) P: 5 | @CWS Masterson (RHP) P: 6 |
| LAA Porcello (RHP) P: 5 | LAA Alvarez (LHP) P: 5 | LAA Fister (RHP) P: 7 | @TB Scherzer (RHP) P: 9 | @TB Verlander (RHP) P: 7 | @TB Porcello (RHP) P: 6 | |
| STL Bedard (LHP) P: 5 | STL Harrell (RHP) P: 7 | LAA Keuchel (LHP) P: 3 | LAA Norris (RHP) P: 4 | LAA Lyles (RHP) P: 5 | ||
| ATL Santana (RHP) P: 9 | ATL Mendoza (RHP) P: 5 | @MIN Guthrie (RHP) P: 4 | @MIN Davis (RHP) P: 4 | @MIN Shields (RHP) P: 8 | @MIN Santana (RHP) P: 9 | |
| @DET Wilson (LHP) P: 4 | @DET Hanson (RHP) P: 1 | @DET Weaver (RHP) P: 5 | @HOU Vargas (LHP) P: 7 | @HOU Blanton (RHP) P: 4 | @HOU Wilson (LHP) P: 7 | |
| @MIA Correia (RHP) P: 5 | @MIA Diamond (LHP) P: 5 | KC Deduno (RHP) P: 7 | KC Walters (RHP) P: 4 | KC Pelfrey (RHP) P: 4 | KC Correia (RHP) P: 5 | |
| TEX Kuroda (RHP) P: 7 | TEX Hughes (RHP) P: 4 | TEX Pettitte (LHP) P: 5 | @BAL Phelps (RHP) P: 6 | @BAL Sabathia (LHP) P: 6 | @BAL Kuroda (RHP) P: 6 | |
| CIN Milone (LHP) P: 7 | CIN Griffin (RHP) P: 8 | STL Colon (RHP) P: 9 | STL Straily (RHP) P: 6 | STL Parker (RHP) P: 7 | ||
| PIT Saunders (LHP) P: 7 | PIT Hernandez (RHP) P: 10 | CHC Iwakuma (RHP) P: 10 | CHC Harang (RHP) P: 7 | CHC Bonderman (RHP) P: 6 | ||
| TOR Hellickson (RHP) P: 6 | TOR Moore (LHP) P: 4 | TOR Hernandez (RHP) P: 3 | DET Archer (RHP) P: 5 | DET Hellickson (RHP) P: 5 | DET Moore (LHP) P: 3 | |
| @NYY Darvish (RHP) P: 10 | @NYY Grimm (RHP) P: 1 | @NYY Holland (LHP) P: 4 | CIN Perez (LHP) P: 3 | CIN Tepesch (RHP) P: 5 | CIN Darvish (RHP) P: 10 | |
| @TB Rogers (RHP) P: 7 | @TB Buehrle (LHP) P: 5 | @TB Dickey (RHP) P: 5 | @BOS Wang (RHP) P: 1 | @BOS Johnson (RHP) P: 6 | @BOS Rogers (RHP) P: 6 | @BOS Buehrle (LHP) P: 4 |
| @WSH Cahill (RHP) P: 4 | @WSH Miley (LHP) P: 3 | @WSH Corbin (LHP) P: 7 | @ATL Delgado (RHP) P: 4 | @ATL Kennedy (RHP) P: 4 | @ATL Cahill (RHP) P: 4 | |
| @KC Medlen (RHP) P: 9 | @KC Minor (LHP) P: 7 | ARI Teheran (RHP) P: 7 | ARI Hudson (RHP) P: 9 | ARI Maholm (LHP) P: 7 | ||
| @MIL Jackson (RHP) P: 4 | @MIL Feldman (RHP) P: 5 | @MIL Garza (RHP) P: 3 | @SEA Wood (LHP) P: 10 | @SEA Samardzija (RHP) P: 8 | @SEA Jackson (RHP) P: 6 | |
| @OAK Arroyo (RHP) P: 6 | @OAK Bailey (RHP) P: 7 | @TEX Cueto (RHP) P: 8 | @TEX Leake (RHP) P: 5 | @TEX Latos (RHP) P: 7 | ||
| @BOS Nicasio (RHP) P: 5 | @BOS Oswalt (RHP) P: 1 | NYM Chatwood (RHP) P: 5 | SF Chacin (RHP) P: 5 | SF DeLaRosa (LHP) P: 6 | SF Nicasio (RHP) P: 6 | |
| SF Ryu (LHP) P: 8 | SF Capuano (LHP) P: 6 | SF Kershaw (LHP) P: 10 | PHI Greinke (RHP) P: 6 | PHI Fife (RHP) P: 5 | PHI Ryu (LHP) P: 8 | PHI Capuano (LHP) P: 6 |
| MIN Fernandez (RHP) P: 10 | MIN Koehler (RHP) P: 3 | SD Nolasco (RHP) P: 7 | SD Turner (RHP) P: 8 | SD Eovaldi (RHP) P: 5 | ||
| CHC Lohse (RHP) P: 9 | CHC Gallardo (RHP) P: 9 | CHC Peralta (RHP) P: 5 | @PIT Figaro (RHP) P: 6 | @PIT TBD P: 1 | @PIT Lohse (RHP) P: 8 | |
| @CWS Wheeler (RHP) P: 7 | @CWS Marcum (RHP) P: 5 | @COL Hefner (RHP) P: 4 | WSH Gee (RHP) P: 6 | WSH Harvey (RHP) P: 10 | WSH Wheeler (RHP) P: 8 | |
| @SD Lee (LHP) P: 9 | @SD Kendrick (RHP) P: 8 | @SD Hamels (LHP) P: 6 | @LAD Pettibone (RHP) P: 1 | @LAD Lannan (LHP) P: 6 | @LAD Lee (LHP) P: 10 | @LAD Kendrick (RHP) P: 8 |
| @SEA Locke (LHP) P: 8 | @SEA Cumpton (RHP) P: 5 | MIL Cole (RHP) P: 8 | MIL Liriano (LHP) P: 7 | MIL Morton (RHP) P: 6 | ||
| @HOU Westbrook (RHP) P: 7 | @HOU Lynn (RHP) P: 6 | @OAK Lyons (LHP) P: 3 | @OAK Miller (RHP) P: 10 | @OAK Wainwright (RHP) P: 8 | ||
| PHI Stults (LHP) P: 8 | PHI Marquis (RHP) P: 6 | PHI Richard (LHP) P: 4 | @MIA Volquez (RHP) P: 4 | @MIA Cashner (RHP) P: 8 | @MIA Stults (LHP) P: 9 | |
| @LAD Bumgarner (LHP) P: 9 | @LAD Gaudin (RHP) P: 7 | @LAD Lincecum (RHP) P: 6 | @COL Zito (LHP) P: 2 | @COL Cain (RHP) P: 5 | @COL Bumgarner (LHP) P: 6 | |
| ARI Gonzalez (LHP) P: 10 | ARI Zimmrmnn (RHP) P: 9 | ARI Strasburg (RHP) P: 8 | @NYM Haren (RHP) P: 2 | @NYM Detwiler (LHP) P: 6 | @NYM Gonzalez (LHP) P: 10 | |
P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |